Hello Readers,
The year 2024 has been named as the Super Election year as 2 billion people go in to vote this year across the globe, amounting to a fourth of the world’s population, across many countries like the US, European Parliament Elections, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia, Taiwan, India, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso etc.
This could be a defining year for democracy, particularly regarding the global democratic backslide observed since the mid-2010s, which has given way to a rise in autocracy and populism across the globe.
So here are the Takeaways:
Lai Ching Te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) claimed victory even after claiming just 40.1% of the total votes, but it is for the first time that a party has won three consecutive elections in the democracy.
Lai has vowed to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan strait which has been volatile for some time now.
It was a setback for China as both the opposition parties in Taiwan, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan’s People Party has vowed to engage more with Beijing and Beijing has refused to deal with the ruling DPP administration.
Prabowo Subianto, the 72-year-old, who used to run polarizing presidential campaigns that demonized his opponents and projected a bombastic, nationalistic persona won over 50% of the vote.
Former President Joko Widodo’s son, 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka will be Prabowo’s vice-president, and some Widodo-era cabinet ministers, who have been campaigning for Prabowo, are expected to take roles in the new government.
Prabowo has promised continuity on ex president Wikodo’s policies which helped transform Indonesia by investing heavily in the country’s Infrastructure and attracting heavy foreign investment, especially by China into the metal and mining sector, which has proved to be a key player in the world’s transition towards green energy.
The liberal opposition won a landslide victory with the country experiencing a record voter turnout of 67%.
Key issues include rising inflation, falling birth rate and the doctors’ ongoing strike in the country.
Vladimir Putin extended his presidency for six more years amidst the ravaging Russia Ukraine war with the Russian Economy growing at a steady pace despite the restrictions as Russia enhanced trade with other partners and some of its industries increasingly developed their own production capacity. In January 2024, seven out of ten Russians held the opinion that their country was moving in the right direction.
These are to take place between 6th and 9th of June, with over 400 million voters eligible to vote across the 27 member states of the European Union.
These elections hold a higher significance for the world order due to the key issues surrounding them, some of these issues being:
The next UK general election will be held on July 4, 2024 following the announcement of the snap poll by the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak on May 22. Going into this election, the right-leaning Conservative Party will have been in power in the UK for 14 years, emerging as the largest party in the last four general elections.
Major issues to look out for in this election are:
The ruling Awami League Party won its fourth consecutive election in a landslide, while Shiekh Hasina extended her title as the longest-serving elected female leader in history.
Many Western governments and democratic observers claimed the election was neither free nor fair, and the past three elections have been boycotted by the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
The 2024 election took place in the midst of a political crisis in Pakistan, following the ousting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2022.
In order to form a government, the Muslim League formed a coalition, mostly propped up by the People’s Party, and re-elected former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as Pakistan’s new leader. International observers and governments widely condemned the elections as being neither free nor fair, while pro-democracy protests were held across the country following the election results.
Elections were scheduled in three of these countries in 2024, although those in Burkina Faso and Mali have been indefinitely postponed, while Mahamat Déby, son of president Idriss Déby (who ruled from 1990 until his death in 2021), won the presidential election in Chad’s contested election in May, extending the Déby family’s 34-year reign.
In Senegal, after much protests, the elections were finally through and ultimately, it was Bassirou Diomaye Faye who took victory, with over 2.4 million votes (a 54 percent share).
South Sudan will hold its first ever democratic elections since 2011. Ghana will hold a general election in December, where the campaign will likely be dominated by its ongoing economic and energy crises. Elsewhere, EU leaders (especially Italy) will be following presidential elections in Algeria, Tunisia, and Rwanda, following major energy and immigration agreements made in 2023.
South Africa will hold its election in May. The African National Congress (the party of Nelson Mandela) will likely remain the largest party, but they may not win a majority of seats.
Unemployment, crime, gold smuggling, corruption and cronyism are the biggest challenges in South Africa.
Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum won against the popular leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).
Sheinbaum and her allies have already won two-thirds of the seats in the lower house and could possibly replicate that success in the senate. Such a supermajority would gift her the power to approve constitutional changes that have eluded AMLO.
The president elect promised strong relations with the US, Banxico autonomy, fiscal discipline, energy sovereignty and more renewables.
Probably one of the most watched saga this year, it offers a rematch of the 2020 presidential elections with Trump and Biden again facing each other with both being unpopular for some or the other reasons, Trump being so for the 6th January attack and his high-profile court cases and convictions which have led many of wall street’s richest back him up, Biden being so for his unreasonable support of Israel and Ukraine as per the Americans and for the overflowing immigration in the country.
Major issues here include:
- Job creation amidst the rising inflation.
- Abortion and Gun regulations.
- Healthcare access, LGBTQ rights, and immigration.
- Tax reforms and government spending particularly the aid to Israel and Ukraine.
- Both candidates, Joe Biden, 80, and Donald Trump, 77, have received increasing concerns regarding their age and the possibility of another term.
- Advancement and regulation of technology
Again with almost one billion eligible voters, India’s election is undoubtedly the largest of the year, taking place between mid-April and early-June with the results being announced tomorrow i.e. the 4th of June.
This will be decisive since the Narendra Modi-led government will be seeking a third consecutive term. The key contenders battling for 543 seats across the nation will be the BJP-led coalition and Congress-led INDI Alliance.
Exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the current NDA government with 3 agencies predicting them to cross the much envied 400 seat mark.
India has been seen as the next gen investment destination for the entire globe and with such a huge democracy at its helm, the general elections are nothing less than a festival.
With most of the pre-election volatility and jitters behind us, the Indian stock market Indices touched new highs today on 3rd June majorly due to the exit poll prediction.
The victory of PM Modi/BJP augurs well for the economy and capital markets as it provides stability and continuity in policymaking with a single-party majority government, which will be expected to continue pushing its economic agenda.
With the Congress just expected to match a fifth of the BJP’s seats in the parliament as opposed to 1.8 times in 2009, this majority also seems to have been working in favor for the current Brand Modi theme.
The magnitude of this victory will also boost the political capital of PM Modi/BJP in pushing through tough legislative agenda such as Uniform Civil Code, One Nation One Poll, Re-introduction of Farm Laws (albeit after some modifications and one failed attempt later), etc. and we may also expect one of these deicions to take place on the iconic 5th August mark which commemorates the abrogation of Article 370 and the Triple Talaq on the same date in previous years.
India is witnessing excellent macros (GDP growth of 8.2% in FY24 on the back of ~7% growth in FY23, inflation at ~5%, both current account and fiscal deficits well within tolerance band, stable currency, etc.), solid corporate earnings (Nifty ended FY24 with 25% earnings growth and FY25/26 earnings are likely to post 14–15% CAGR), focus on manufacturing, capex and infrastructure creation, and valuations at 20x one-year forward earnings.
So eagerly waiting for tomorrow….
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Originally published at https://chroniclebrews.substack.com.
